According to the worst scenario, the global economy and trade are projected to down dramatically while Vietnamese public debt and budget overspending are assumed to keep increasing. Risks of this scenario also are posed by Vietnam’s rely on the old growth modelamidst fiercer competition. These factors together are assessed to hinder the growth of Vietnamese economy at 6.2 percent on average.
The most likely scenario assumes that global economic growth remains stable, at about 3 percent, while State investment’s disbursement and effectiveness continue to be improved, and legal procedures and investment climate get better. In such context, the country’s average economic growth is estimated at 6.55 percent a year.
In the high-growth scenario, which is more unlikely than the two others, annual GDP growth will average 6.85 percent during the period provided that economic restructuring is carried out more strongly, especially in management mechanisms, thus improving public investment’s effectiveness, and labor productivity is raised to be at par with the ASEAN average. In that case, the economy would not only maintain sustainable development, but also create prerequisites for the following five years.
Mr. Dang Duc Anh, Head of Analysis and Forecast division under the NCIF, said that Vietnam’s economy is predicted to escape from recession and begin a new period of recovery in 2016-2020.
He also forecast that the industry and construction sector would enjoy robust growth and become the main recovery engines for the whole economy. Meanwhile, the services sector will benefit from positive impacts of the ASEAN Community’s commitments and free trade agreements, with stronger consumption demand and trade promotion activities, Mr. Dang Duc Anh added.
