Vietnam was set to become the biggest beneficiary of the TPP. The World Bank’s preliminary estimates for the 2015-2035 period suggested that the TPP could add about 8 per cent to Vietnam’s GDP, 17 per cent to its real exports, and 12 per cent to its capital stock.
However, many international economists has expressed that Vietnam will still enjoy strong economic growth without the TPP. Given uncertainty over the TPP, the World Bank recently projected that Vietnam’s economy could rise 6.3 per cent in 2017, and 6.3 per cent in next year. According to the World Bank, the average growth rate of 6 per cent is relatively high, especially compared with growth in the region and around the world.The average growth rate in Asia is estimated at 6 per cent in 2016.
Mr.Marlene Rump, a senior economist at international economic forecasters Focus Economics, if there is no the TPP, Vietnam will continue its annual growth at a positive rate of above 6 per cent per year in the coming four years. The Focus Economics predicts that Vietnam’s real GDP will expand by 6.4 per cent in 2017, before slowing to 6.3 per cent on average from 2018 to 2020. In addition, research group Conference Board said that Vietnam’s economy is not likely to experience remarkable changes if TPP is not passed by the U.S.
While things remain unclear now as U.S. businesses will act to back the ratification of the trade deal, several Vietnamese leaders have stressed that whether the TPP agreement materializes or not, Vietnam will continue improving its business environment to support enterprises and Vietnam will seek other trade agreements to fuel economic growth.
Speaking at Vietnam Summit 2016 in December, 2016, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh noted that by signing the TPP, Vietnam wants to tighten trade ties with Asia Pacific countries and create more business opportunities. Therefore, Vietnam looks forwards to the ratification of the trade deal by all member countries, including the U.S.
Moreover, he underlined that if there is no the TPP, Vietnam has a host of other free trade agreements (FTAs) to rely on, with partners such as South Korea, Japan, the ASEAN bloc, the European Union, and the Eurasian Economic Union.
According to the latest report on acceleration of international economic integration signed by Minister of Industry and Trade Tran Tuan Anh, Vietnam has inked 10 FTAs, concluded negotiations over two FTAs, and is in talks over four FTAs.
In particular, the country has joined six regional FTAs as an ASEAN member, including the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) and the five FTAs between ASEAN and China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand, as well as four bilateral FTAs with Chile, Japan, South Korea and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU). The remaining FTAs that are being negotiated include the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the Hong Kong-ASEAN FTA, the FTA with Israel, and the FTA with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA).
Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Do Thang Hai told Vietnam Summit 2016 that before negotiating the TPP, Vietnam had taken part in multilateral organizations such as the World Trade Organization. Vietnam’s business environment has been improved and the nation has stepped up investment restructuring, encouraged the private sector and strengthened management of public debt to pursue sustainable growth. He also stressed that with or without the trade deal, Vietnam’s economic policy towards international integration will remain unchanged.
Speaking at Vietnam Summit 2016, Andrew Staples, director of the Economist Corporate Network in ASEAN, said the global economy has performed better and Vietnam would benefit from this in the coming time.
