Vietnam poverty and anti-poverty program evaluation

TÓM TẮT:

After the long and persist war time, Vietnam has proved its impressive economic growth that, for ten year of the late 1990s, countries GDP has increased by 9-10 percentage. The optimistic economic encourages the poverty rate to drop by more than 50% from 1990 to 2014. However, in the current years, 2016-2017, the country starts to suffer with the most challenging issue of the population of chronic poverty. Besides the ethnic minority who are isolated from lowland economic activities, there are people in the heart of center cities who never escape from poor as they are excluded or discriminated from equal accessibility of necessaries and public services. The concerns are blamed for the national leaders who obtain few true understanding and responsibility for their people. It is also the whole culture pattern and poor-lifestyle persistence in which inequality rises more and more. The paper is to review and evaluate some characteristics of poverty measurements and anti-poverty programs in Vietnam.

Keywords: Poverty, Vietnam, Anti-poverty program, poverty measurement, social inequality.

I. Introduction

Since the Doi Moi economic adjustment in 1986, Vietnam government has been putting constant effort in lifting the citizen living condition and the national economy. One of the most important target that Vietnam desires to achieve is decrease the poverty level or sufficiently procedure the anti-poverty plan. The expected outcomes are that Vietnamese people have the capability in increasing education level, enhancing the domestic production and pushing countrys economic growth. In fact, through decades, the poverty level did noticeably drop, however, the challenges are still remained as many severe circumstances and families of isolated from the country economic growth - uneven growth. The governmental control has been blamed as its anti-poverty policies ineffectiveness and unpractical implementation, more important, the inability in control the urbanization effect. This paper focuses to critically identify Vietnam anti-poverty strategy and give some recommendation for better politics enactment.

II. Viet Nam poverty

From 1990s, poverty rate in Vietnam was 60 percent, which dropped to 20.7% in 2010, and 13.5% in 2014 [11] and reflected a dramatic effort of the governmental control. In fact the poverty and hunger have been haunted Vietnamese citizens since the 1980s when the economics was suffered from the hyperinflation and extremely unstable economic state; the harshness forced many people to find the way to escape from the country to find better opportunities [5].

                                                  Figure 1: Vietnam GDP since 1985 to 2015

                                                                   (source: WorkdBank)

By researching Vietnam poverty factors, the country had initially been affected by the poor performance in agriculture (country main economic source) that led to the bad harvest and severe widespread famine in the period of 1980s-1990s [5]. The condition defined not only poor agricultural method that critically needed strategic reformation. Thus it was essential for Vietnam to care for the people's basic necessary need of food and got significant level of food aid from the other countries, specifically the Soviet Union [5]. This caused Vietnam to obtain governmental finance deficit for long time and prevent strong focus in the economic growth. Poor performance and heavy support dependence have created bizarre obstacles for Vietnam to take any steps in building economy. Thus, government had introduced the structural reform that desirably repaired the inflation rate, strengthened the credit line and state enterprise budget constraint [5]. As the country started to grow and open to the international trading, domestic business and foreign investment rapidly increase the living standard of the country and the GDP by 9-10 percentage during ten years later [5].

However, recently, according to Valerie Kozel, Senior Economist for the World Bank, the poverty issue has been emphasized by the uneven improvement that the ethnic minorities have to bear with [11]. Although Vietnam ethnic minority groups take about 15% of the whole population, they remain the poverty range relatively high (by about half) in the national poverty level [11]. This portrayed the picture of Vietnams uneven economic growth as a whole, where ethnic minority residents struggle with “isolation, limited assets, low levels of education, poor health conditions” - Ms. Kozel added [11]. The interpretation indicates that the general level of Vietnam economy has improved or peaked up, however, separately in some economic centers and main cities such as Ho Chi Minh and Hanoi; left the remaining population in inability to follow, even detach from the nations condition.

During the 2000s, by the statistical evidences, Vietnam proved its fast economic growth, however, still cannot erase the burden from the past mismanagement and ineffective in its political implementation. Besides the taking equal care for the ethnic minority, residents in cities and urban areas are not properly cared either. Accordingly, the Poverty Map in Vietnam showed the example of Vietnams most active urbanized city - Ho Chi Minh and the its considerable level of urban poor [9]. The urbanization was so rapid which caused many drawbacks to the society, especially the informal jobs and lacks of working benefits. Moreover, the problematic the report was able to spot out was the statistical census lack of data accuracy about the fraction of mobile population that was believed to reason for the urban poor [9]. Not only the trouble in solving the poverty, it was also the managerial issue as the system could not collect or could not produce the most reliable numerical result of poverty.

III. Vietnam's anti-poverty work

Follow the aiming of Doi Moi 1986 and the special framework of UN's Millennium Development Goal, the goals are set of desirable level of education, poverty, health [4]. The plan effectiveness should be measured by many aspects besides the basic economic indicators (GDP, GNP, national growth, etc); but also by the real indicators of measuring the individual's living standards, such as children schooling, health status, legibility, etc. In the case of Vietnamese government's anti-poverty program, stories of poverty escape are plenty and graceful full that reflects the countrys effort. However, there are still many situations that show the incapability of the political control system.

The poor ethnic minority living condition usually cause many health and financial burden to the individuals. According to the documentary of An Dien - journalist of Thanhniennews). The region of Tra Vinh province by the Mekong Delta has been the homeland for about 300,000 ethnic Khmer people who are bearing their life with abject poverty. The people have been supported by the national anti-poverty program and aid-assigned under the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and Irish Aid. The international support team had held several visits to educate the people in alleviating from current poor lifestyle. It was the real observant that the national provincial leaders and the anti-poverty supporters lined up to greet and join in peoples cultural dance and singing, in order to entertaining the international teams. In fact that was a apparent sign about their mindset about anti-poverty that likely prevent them from sufficient success. That was just the notice of poor performance and poverty remaining lifestyle. The practical example that should be taken care of Ms Thach Thi Pon, showed us the ugly effects of anti-poverty program effectiveness. Her husband had to look for labour job and got hired in another village; left her with daily with two little children - one of them is suffered from asthma and lung diseases.

Another example of Vietnam poverty condition taken into account in Khanh Hoa, Mr. Nguyen Tan Tuan - the Province Deputy claimed the fact that in his province, majority of people did not know how to work better from their daily jobs. According to Thanhniennews interview, Mr. Tuan also shared the reality that the province supported the local residents with 10 million from Animal Husbandry Program; however, unfortunately, when being asked how they spend to feed or breed the castle, they replied nothing as they kept doing their previous ways of random food on hands. The interview reflected the fact of how anti-poverty program actually been enacted in locals; and that raised the question of their effectiveness. The article also included another situation which took place in Danang, as the high-mountain-communities were taught to fix cameras and computers; the city official commented about the unreasonability of the training structure as if the program actually taught normal people to repair spaceship.

The situation has been worse when authorities were asked for the reasons, as if they tricked the publicity with the childish and ridiculous excuses. As being questioned for the land losses for peoples living and farming usage, Mr Danh - the Committee on Ethnic Minority Affairs - blamed the “ministerial power, golf course construction, hydropower plants and industrials zones [10]. Ironically, the anti-poverty program ineffectiveness seems to be answered by the story of leader intentions to keep their village poor as the return they would not lose their authority power. The support and external aid would be “donated” to who were surplus of them, instead of the poor residents.

IV. Demystifying poverty measurement in Vietnam

Monetary indicator:

By producing the report called “Demystifying poverty measurement in Vietnam”, Vietnam poverty was testified and introduced to two main poverty measuring approaches [10]. The first approach is used by the Ministry of Labor, Invalids, and Social Affairs (MOLISA), in the purpose of determine the real national poverty condition; thus, structure the anti-poverty program. The second approach is the general historical poverty percentage in long-term that is used by Vietnam General Statistics Office and the World Bank (GSO-WB).

MOLISAGabriel Demombynes and Linh Hoang Vu, 2015, “Demystifying Poverty Measurement in Vietnam”, VIETNAM DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DISCUSSION PAPER, WorlBank, Accessed in 5/9/2017 from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/923881468303855779/pdf/949390WP00PUBL0m0Feb0201500PUBLIC0.pdf

The method includes three steps:

1) Welfare indicator can be either considered as income or consumption.

2) Determine a minimum acceptable level of that indicator, that will be considered as the poverty line.

3) After constructing the poverty line, construct the definition and the calculation of how poverty can be measured/interpreted from that poverty line.

In the consideration of choosing between Income and Consumption, Demombynes and Vu proved that consumption line would give a better reflection of real living condition, as it is less likely to incorrectly disclosed, compared to income. As the consumption indicates better view on peoples spending for the basic needs, which is consisted to the level of calories for people to sustain good health. The concerns are how basic needs and good health can be standardized; the food poverty line/ food energy intake and non-food component would be taken into account as the consequence. Data transparently shows that Vietnam people still suffering from the inequality in living condition and gap in food and calories intakes per day, since the Doi Moi [8].

This approach is applied as the most desire of Vietnamese MOLISA in calculating and numbering the real data, thus be able to obtain the poverty headcount. The ideal and budget for national anti-poverty program can be determined rewardingly. Below, the graph shows how countries preferred to use consumption to calculate poverty line over Income; also, how the basic-spending indicator is preferred to be used over any others.

Historical poverty percentage in long-term 1

Figure 2: Stacked column chart that shows regions frequent using of indicators in measuring poverty line (source: Yoshida, Katayaman and Singh)

Another approach is taken into account in the perspective of national poverty against the international poverty line. This cross-continent bottom line has been invented by World Bank experts and proposed as the number of $1.25 spending per day for basic needs. As a developing country like Vietnam, the poverty line is $2 per daily spending on basic needs [10]. The ultimate purpose of the method is to track country developing conditions by the standard of the Millennium Development Goals; thus, country would be ranged and compared to the identical or similar countries in the globalizing developing trend of the whole international market.

Poverty has been firmly and frequently measured by the poverty line of each countries, that is set for their standards of monetary guideline [2]. In the 1993, there were more than 60% of Vietnam population live under the poverty line; the number went down to 14.5% in the 2014 and recently 8.4%.

Figure 3: Stacked column chart that shows regions frequent using other indicators in measuring poverty line (source: Yoshida, Katayaman and Singh)

Accordingly, since the late 1980s, majority of the Vietnamese lived below the international poverty line of $1.25 per day [10]. This economic standard has the limitation in measuring the real definition poverty in Vietnam by how is poor? How is rich? or poor by how much.

Figure 4: Line chart show comparison between South - East Asia poverty rate countries (source: WorldBank)

Nonmonetary indicators:

Nonmonetary indicators should be well considered as critical benchmark for countries to picture their real living condition growth as well. In their article of study [2] stated that non-monetary indicators such as malnutrition and education reflect the analytical point the national poverty, especially in the responsible for the chronic poverty.

The malnutrition level has been calculated as the two scientists conducted the normal distribution bell of human height. There was a significant relationship between the lower-than-mean height will obtain the living condition at or below the poverty line. However, the limitation of such method is time-costly and effort consuming that accurate poverty-malnutrition model must be conducted based on well-categorized indicators - for example, low, moderate or severe malnutrition/stunted, young or adult, and low, moderate or severe poverty. Such regression model design will bring the best specified relationship and prevent from data generalized [2].

Education rate is also concerned as proving the countrys population portion of ability to enroll into schools. People who endure their live in poor, has the higher rate of being uneducated or continuous education. The education rate shows its relation to country's poverty rate, however, as the illustrative and consequential effects from poverty, instead of a strong determinator initially. For Vietnam and its culture of parents priority education, enrollment rate are high since the 1990s - 91.4% rate of primary education enrolment; 90% enrollment rate in disadvantaged geographic areas. Such positive rate of education, however, only shows the tremendous effort of parent to ensure their children education attendances. Since, the distribution of the financial poverty and education enroll would not tell the whole story behind the culture. Thus, the model is suggested to be more precisely studied and defined other education rates such as, rate of graduation, rate of employment, rate of literacy, etc that are defined by geographic differences (due to Vietnams uneven development) [2].

V. Challenges & shortcoming of Viet Nam's anti-poverty methodology

Vietnam reality

By the theoretical mistakes that can be noted above, in the certain case of Vietnam the factors causing the serious division in data observations is high social inequality and geographical isolation. In fact, besides many type of rich portion of population, poor portions would be divided into many classes: unemployed/illegal conduct, ethnic minority and low-capital [7]. Vietnam Control leaders have not had the right production in preventing such severe and critical classes of society being exploited by the rich, thus pushed deeper into hardness and permanent poverty [7].

Ineffective urbanization:

It is critical that ethnic population remain 90% of the whole Vietnams poverty. Consequently, people from poor districts and ethnic areas desires to escape from poverty and insignificant aid coverage of governments and inability to reach of supporters, as moving to cities where has been encouraged by the economic growth and expected to alleviate their poor living situation. However, the big number of people moving caused the “traffic jam” in states control and ability of employability [2]. The poverty rate is surprisingly high in the two lowland centers of Vietnam - in the north and south. More persistent to poverty have been experienced, as that 60% of urban population still engage with agriculture for living [6]. Many people still living way below the poverty line of $2 inside hearts of big cities.

Inequality:

In last two decades, the inequalities of Vietnam populations income has been increasing causing with the economic holding-back. Moreover, since 2004, the gap between the 20% richest people and the rest has been widening; the 210-richest holds for 125 of national GDP; and that the income gap become 1.74 times between the rich people and the poor [10]. According to the Oxfam report of “HOW TO TACKLE INEQUALITY IN VIETNAM”, the effect of inequality has been more serious as it constantly grows up [10]. The monetary and economic inequality can lead to the incurrence of inequality of opportunities and voice [10]. Portions, such as commuted workers, ethnic minorities, etc (impacted by monetary poverty) will have more tendency to lose their ability in having better living standards, being isolated or disrespected in decision-making events. Furthermore, the cycle effect of poverty would happen as poverty discourages personal investments and outside investment into health, education, political involvement, etc.; sequentially poor living style creates the chronic poverty.

Ineffective political implementation

Previously, session above mention about governmental insufficiency in such being carefree about poor-lifestyle-performance, wrong anti-poverty nature, illegal intention in poverty aiming, etc.

Ineffectiveness in politics and political implementation are not only shown in the high percentage remained under the poverty line but also by how people poorly educated about the anti-poverty program itself. In a report of Oxfam, there are 41% and 89.4% of Vietnamese, taking part in to survey, respectively replied not to know about Vietnamese Constitutions and raised their request for more information about [10]. The survey also asserted the fact that people, especially, poor people feel likely they do not have the right to request information about such issues of legal spending, tax, and budget. Moreover. There are incidences when people do not know they they actually can ask and have the right over the authorities in receiving such information.

Technical limitations Baulch, R. (2011). Why poverty persists. 1st ed. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, pp.1-50. Accessed 5 May 2017 from https://books.google.com.au/books?hl=en&lr=&id=YQhku2wXdckC&oi=fnd&pg=PR3&dq=anti-poverty+of+Vietnam+&ots=brfMCh1rNS&sig=M6Mx2_Der0g9wLoJBuih3-jSq_o#v=onepage&q=anti-poverty%20of%20Vietnam&f=false

The challenge of the Vietnam anti-poverty control and policies have been put into governmental priority since the Doi Moi. However, as the interpretation above, Vietnam like the other developing countries, has been facing the chronic poverty and permanent counter-effect of the ineffective managerial policies. The acute reasons behind the long-lasting poverty should be perceived since the poverty measurement method and the flaw in collected data.

Bob Baulch (2011), in his book named “Why Poverty Persists: Poverty Dynamics in Asia and Africa”, mentioned about the managerial mistake of inability to collect the most accurate and unreliable data. There is always a systemic flaw of regression model that panel data cannot represent the characteristic of the population as a whole, and that model constructor can collect biased observations (outliers) that would skewed the final result. Moreover, Baulch (2011) also emphasized the significant effect that model possibly produces unreliability as data are not correctly classified for relevant comparison, which is caused by the variation of data characteristics, most importantly in Vietnam - the geographical differences. Measurement and methodology, annually or technically, always face with the measuring errors. As the MOLISA and international approach of measuring poverty line depend on historical panel data which are impacted by the unsure collectors in the first place, the final relationship of poverty and such monetary/ economic indicators endure the margin error in calculation itself, as well as from the imprecise input [2]. The map below shows how different indicators and different measurement of poverty can varied the poverty rate result, which provide distinctive preference for different anti-poverty program.

Figure 5: Poverty maps that who the concentration of poverty in Vietnam by MOLISA and GSO approach. (source: Administrative data from Molisa; GSO estimated)

VI. Solution & Recommendations

According to a report of Vietnam poverty by Oxfam, it is admitted that Vietnam has been impressing the region and the world with fast decline of poverty decrease compared to the day after war. However, advanced solutions for more complicated issue of managerial system and policies enactment must be reviewed for the countrys long-term development.

Eliminating the inequality:

The most momentous problem is effort in reducing inequality in Vietnam. It is critical fact that policy framework of Vietnam is not yet effectively proposed or enacted. Four policy areas have been considered as the most reasonable in influencing the targeted poor population; they are tax system, public service, spending on health and education and labour policies [10]. The main reason behind is strengthening the governmental budget balance that provide more cash revenue and encourage governmental stability in supporting the society. Restructuring tax system (release tax pressure) can also encourage investment, thus increase economic growth.

Social service:

Providing affordable has been considered as one of important solution to increase people's living standards, life condition thus lift them out of poverty [1]. The most prioritized aim is provide people with the knowledge and information about their rights and benefits. Furthermore, the consequence also become supportive for government and authorities that they can gather for information from direct engagement with people; more practical preferences for their political decision-making.

Besides, equal information and transparent publicity helps prevent informal and irregular spending [10], as the reason for holding back economy and poverty support. The graph below represents the amount of irregular payments and bride that particular countries obtain in 2014-2015 [10]. It is clear that government needs stronger measurement, prevention and punishment, as its aiming for long-term sustainability and equal development.

Figure 6: Line chart shows countries irregular payment and bribed in 2014-2015 (source: WB Staff)

Social public service also includes the daily affordable welfare supports such as insurance, health cares, transportation, etc. Local residences, especially ethnic minorities need such aids that support them in daily securities and potential communication with the world development. The communication and delivering demand would require for investing in public infrastructure.

People support and training:

Training includes both targeted poor residence training and the authorities.

Residence training remains the characteristics of providing supportive help not only for financial enhancement, but also for lifestyle improvement. Firstly, government policies can be helpful in providing land for people's settlement and farming, thus directly solve their needs of working and poverty [10]. Besides the monetary aid, it is critical for helpers to consider a long-term effectiveness by enhancing people's mindset and lifestyle about permanently lifted away from poverty [10]. By managing such trips to ethnic minorities or poor areas to educate them about lifestyle, instead of spending money in inferior donation program whose can only be delivered partially.

Authority training insists with training local leaders and authorities to have the responsibility in supporting the local residence. Moreover, they are need to be updated about modern and effective anti-poverty methods that possibly drive away from old and “subjective” leading style. Vietnamese governments has been imposed the policy of “Program 135 [10]” that implemented aiming for anti-poverty, recently. This helps people find more safety and better easiness in delivering and commuting for school and work.

Technical training:

Technical training is more recommended for authorities and leaders in the manner of learning. Since the fact is that models of poverty measuring always contain a certain about of error, it is very preferable as the information input are more plentiful due to the survey. Since then, authorities and leaders are requested to learn and be able to apply technical management, perhaps E-government, that will precisely process things as a whole with high time-saving.

VII. Conclusion

In general, the paper has provided the general knowledge about Vietnam poverty condition and anti-poverty methodology limitations. It is well-generated and comprehended that depend on the level of poverty and poverty subject, approaches to measure poverty will be differentiated [3]. This provides alternative view about a countrys poverty through diversification of measuring methods; moreover, further details about desired indicators can be also researched and revealed, for example consumption line, income, education rate or health and food intake conditions, etc.

Vietnam economy, as obtaining the first step of Doi Moi, has been able to appear to the global development with impressive growth rate and dramatic drop in poverty. Unfortunately, it still cannot able to establish people and marketers confidence in the national future substantial growth. Since there are many ineffectiveness in governmental management politics - resulting in tax burden, living standard gap income inequality, social inequality, etc. These not only degrade the effect of anti-poverty program in general but also discourage other aspect of economic growth. Thus, recommendations focus on changing in policy and implementation method adjustment - restructure economic system (especially tax release), provide affordable public service and sufficient training program. Ultimately, these will lessen the counter effect of fast and decentralized growth, giving people incentive for self-acknowledgment of their accessibility to higher lifestyle.

REFERENCES:

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2. Baulch, B. and Masset, E. (2003). Do Monetary and Nonmonetary Indicators Tell the Same Story About Chronic Poverty? A Study of Vietnam in the 1990s. World Development, [online] 31(3), pp.441-453. [Acessed 9 May 2017 from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X02002152.]

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ĐÁNH GIÁ CHƯƠNG TRÌNH XÓA ĐÓI GIẢM NGHÈO Ở VIỆT NAM

PHAN XUÂN HOÀNG

Nghiên cứu sinh tại Đại học Flinders, Australia

Chuyên viên Ban Kinh tế và Ngân sách Hội đồng nhân dân tỉnh Nghệ An

TÓM TẮT:

Sau thời gian chiến tranh kéo dài, Việt Nam đã đạt được sự tăng trưởng kinh tế đáng ghi nhận, trong 10 năm cuối những năm 1990, GDP của đất nước đã tăng trung bình 9-10%. Kinh tế lạc quan đã đóng góp tỷ lệ nghèo giảm hơn 50% từ năm 1990 đến năm 2014. Tuy nhiên, trong những năm gần đây 2016 - 2017, Việt Nam bắt đầu chịu đựng những vấn đề thách thức mới với dân số nghèo đói mãn tính. Không những người dân tộc thiểu số bị cô lập khỏi các hoạt động kinh tế, ngay cả những người ở trung tâm của các thành phố cũng không bao giờ thoát khỏi nghèo vì họ bị loại trừ hoặc phân biệt đối xử với việc tiếp cận các nhu yếu và các dịch vụ công. Những mối quan tâm này được đổ lỗi cho các nhà lãnh đạo quốc gia, những người có trách nhiệm chính tới vấn đề an sinh xã hội đối với người nghèo. Nó cũng được đổ lỗi cho văn hóa và lối sống trông chờ ỷ lại của một bộ phận dân cư đã làm cho ngày càng tăng lên. Bài nghiên cứu này nhằm phân tích và đánh giá biện pháp đói nghèo cũng như một số chương trình xóa đói giảm nghèo ở Việt Nam.

Từ khóa: Nghèo đói, Việt Nam, chống đói nghèo, đo lường nghèo đói, bất bình đẳng xã hội.

Xem tất cả ấn phẩm Các kết quả nghiên cứu khoa học và ứng dụng công nghệ số 07 tháng 06/2017 tại đây